So about North Korea

[i]

Honestly, this entire situation is going to hell in a hand basket. North Korea have been posturing for a while now, to the point that China, the country that 'supports' N. Korea are getting a bit on edge about the whole situation, especially since N. Korea are moving nukes to the East Coast. America appears to be poking the bear with their moving of Destroyers to monitor North Korean missile activity, which is just adding to the tension. Honestly, all it's going to take the equivalent of the Old Guy at Helm's Deep to spark this powder keg.

In other news, I'm going to join the penguins in Antarctica. Anyone what to join me? (Bring your own igloo.)

I feel this is a smoke screen by the American and British Governments in order to make their respective citizens focus on and fear North Korea instead of focusing on all the bad things that are going on in their own countries.

For example, in the UK, the government are bringing about changes to the welfare system which will affect some of the most vulnerable people in British society and so if people are more worried about the threat from North Korea then the British Government can make changes without much objection. I mean how exactly is North Korea going to be able nuke the UK when they can barely reach the USA?!

Also, if America just shut up and stopped provoking North Korea, this whole thing would blow over. North Korea are just huffing and puffing, they don't really want a war and China probably won't let them start one just yet anyway. The US are as much to blame for this escalation as North Korea.

@7th, I'm packing my bags!

North Korea is a very isolated and stagnant culturally, economically, militarily, and diplomatically. There have been progressive sanctions against North Korea for decades now which has worsened the conditions in North Korea for everyone, meaning that they depend highly on humanitarian aid from other nations such as Marxist China and South Korea. North Korea being as close as to the literary "Nineteen Eighty Four" (1948) possible as a result there is extreme propaganda at work within the country, which the North Koreans are very indoctrinated into believing their enemies are responsible for the social problems they currently have focusing their angst at their enemies during the Korean War... which to be more than fair the Allies from the Korean War have been undermining the North Korean state ever since the armistice in every peaceful or quasi-peaceful means they could supporting an idealistic policy of someday north and south reunifying... most preferably under the South Korean banner.

Marxist China is uncomfortable with the current North Korean state, however they are much more uncomfortable with another conflict so close to their nation or an occupation of North Korea by nations like the United States. Despite this discomfort the Marxist government and party in China has no meaningful policy to curtail the growing tensions in North Korea. How Marxist China would respond to growing tensions or even incidents? Most likely how they have responded so far by doing very little. How would they respond if it escalated beyond tension and incidents? That's the tough one to answer...

South Korea would be the most likely first target of North Korea as the North Koreans feeling that the last Korean War did not end in their favor so there is a bit of a grudge as you might imagine, but considering South Korea is now a world power in economics and military... South Korea independently on its own is most likely capable of defending itself if it were only North Korea vs South Korea. As the North Korean military is under-funded, under-equipped, and under-trained while the South Korean military is a funded and modern military. But South Korea has a strong interest in maintaining good relations with North Korea and North Korea with the south as they receive a lot of economic and humanitarian aid from the south... in the political culture of South Korea the north is somewhat akin to a deranged brother that you love and will help even though you realize their deranged.

The United States and most of the international community has been increasingly alarmed and at times somewhat paranoid about the developments in North Korea, Syria, and Iran. The United States is still recovering from an economic recession and its military is still trying to sort the last several conflicts it was involved in. The attitude of the United States seems to be a "tit for tat" political and military posturing with North Korea... as North Korea "rattles their saber" so does the United States. It seems unlikely to me that either side actually wants a conflict and considering the blatant propaganda that has been coming from the North I am going to side with the overly optimistic evaluation from the Daily Show with Jon Stewart... this is more a bolstering of a new Marxist leader's international and domestic reputation. But as the these international states play their drama on the world stage the possibility of accidentally starting an actual war of devastating consequences seems more likely...

So presuming that heads stay cool this posturing will be just another incident in a very long history of incidents from North Korea ever since the Korean War ceased at the armistice. Unless Marxist China supports North Korea unequivocally, which is unlikely to happen, any future conflict with them will be relatively short lived... but again this is me being overly optimistic.

Nothing is going to happen. North Korea isn't stupid. They know that the moment they send one missile flying, they'll all be bombed to hell. A country wouldn't risk its existence and autonomy with war when it has nothing to gain. And the "Allied" countries won't back down either, as that'd be like being pushovers like appeasement all over again, but they'll never be the first ones to strike. North Korea is just barking at everyone trying to get every other country and its own citizens to take it seriously. Apparently this isn't the first time it has happened.

Yesterday on Skype:

[4/4/2013 4:23:21 PM] Sporadic: North korea can launch an airstrike on deeze nuts

I'll just leave this here...




In all seriousness, while we should take the threat seriously, I don't think we can take North Korea themselves seriously simply because the young leader want's to flex his sad excuse set of muscles for his brainwashed people. It's like he want's a cock fight, and I'm not talking about the Chicken kind either. How can we take a nation like that serious in anything other than the threats they want to make?

vashnik wrote:I'll just leave this here...




In all seriousness, while we should take the threat seriously, I don't think we can take North Korea themselves seriously simply because the young leader want's to flex his sad excuse set of muscles for his brainwashed people. It's like he want's a cock fight, and I'm not talking about the Chicken kind either. How can we take a nation like that serious in anything other than the threats they want to make?

Because the moment when you blow it off, your at your weakest...

Btw.... Gonna leave this here, its from TODAY:

"We can confirm that the British Embassy in Pyongyang received a communication from the North Korean government this morning," said a spokesman for the Foreign Office.
"It said that the North Korean government would be unable to guarantee the safety of embassies and international organisations in the country in the event of conflict from April 10," he added.
The Foreign office declined to disclose how many staff are working in Pyongyang, but said no decision had yet been taken on whether to pull out. "We are considering next steps," the spokesman said.
Russia also said it had received the same notice. "Unfortunately, the situation (on the Korean peninsula) is not developing in the way that we would like. For us the security of our citizens is the priority," said a Russian Foreign ministry source quoted by Interfax, the Russian news agency.

Note: Pyongyang is NK's capital

from: [url=This]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9973951/North-Korea-tells-Britain-to-consider-evacuating-Pyongyang-embassy.html[/url]

Kusanagi wrote:Nothing is going to happen. North Korea isn't stupid. They know that the moment they send one missile flying, they'll all be bombed to hell. A country wouldn't risk its existence and autonomy with war when it has nothing to gain. And the "Allied" countries won't back down either, as that'd be like being pushovers like appeasement all over again, but they'll never be the first ones to strike. North Korea is just barking at everyone trying to get every other country and its own citizens to take it seriously. Apparently this isn't the first time it has happened.

That's more or less how I see it. It's just posturing.

MiniSiets wrote:

Kusanagi wrote:Nothing is going to happen. North Korea isn't stupid. They know that the moment they send one missile flying, they'll all be bombed to hell. A country wouldn't risk its existence and autonomy with war when it has nothing to gain. And the "Allied" countries won't back down either, as that'd be like being pushovers like appeasement all over again, but they'll never be the first ones to strike. North Korea is just barking at everyone trying to get every other country and its own citizens to take it seriously. Apparently this isn't the first time it has happened.

That's more or less how I see it. It's just posturing.

Really the only question is just how far is North Korea willing to go with this tough guy act. They can't be stupid enough to think they can get away with using nukes so what do they think they can get away with? Will they try to sink an air craftcarrier or attack an Embassy? Even if it's obvious they can't varry out their Nuke threat there is plenty they certainly can do.

Kusanagi wrote:Nothing is going to happen. North Korea isn't stupid. They know that the moment they send one missile flying, they'll all be bombed to hell. A country wouldn't risk its existence and autonomy with war when it has nothing to gain. And the "Allied" countries won't back down either, as that'd be like being pushovers like appeasement all over again, but they'll never be the first ones to strike. North Korea is just barking at everyone trying to get every other country and its own citizens to take it seriously. Apparently this isn't the first time it has happened.

Basically this. ^

I guess the Cold war isn't over yet. (never was for some)

Shadow_Links wrote:I guess the Cold war isn't over yet. (never was for some)

This isn't about the Cold War. The Cold War is an entirely different ideological conflict than the one between North Korea and the UN. The Cold War was a clash of opposite market and government systems intensified by the bipolar superpower status held by the participants. To the extent of my knowledge, outside of the fact that it's making nuclear weapons without permission, North Korea just has humanitarian and dictatorial conflicts with the UN's main missions. And the power difference between the US and North Korea is immense, which warps how the countries interact.

I was mainly referencing the nuclear deterrence part of the cold war, Mutually Assured Destruction, that sort of stuff. Essentially using the general term cold war as indirect conflict. (I may be stretching that a bit since it is N. Korea and not a satellite)

well even if North korea fired a nuke, the only western civilisation they will be able to hit will be australia since you know we dont have all the fancy smancy early detection anti nuke stuff you guys have

Even if the North Korean leader seems to be showing of for his military a threat of nuclear strike is not something to be taken lightly. Specially when you relies how young he is to be leading a country also have to put in to consideration Kim Jong-un's stat of mind he was basically thought to be like his father. The difference is he is so much younger and there for much more implosive when making chooses, after all he did threaten the US and the UK with nuclear strikers.
I'm not saying he will do it or not however I am saying he has the power to do so if he chooses. I am saying consider the possibility of this action and its effects on the world we know. Lets say he does manage to somehow launch a nuke at the US and as we know US has one of the worlds most advanced air difference system in the world, so lets assume the strike fails what does that mean for North Korea.
This would be a declaration of war on the part of North Korea to the US and the world. This also puts China in a tough spot, but over all in my opinion if all that happens China would be forced to cut ties with North Korea. Just the act of launching a nuclear weapon regardless of which nuclear wilding nation it is would result as that nation being seen as a threat to the whole world. The North Korean people my not be stupid or implosive but in the end the trigger is held by one man and its is probably the last man on earth you want to give that kind of power.


Of course this is all speculation on my part. However it is best to deal with issues before they have a chance to escalate to the point of no return and it can no longer be changed or be regretted

AlucArd_1590 wrote:Even if the North Korean leader seems to be showing of for his military a threat of nuclear strike is not something to be taken lightly. Specially when you relies how young he is to be leading a country also have to put in to consideration Kim Jong-un's stat of mind he was basically thought to be like his father. The difference is he is so much younger and there for much more implosive when making chooses, after all he did threaten the US and the UK with nuclear strikers.
I'm not saying he will do it or not however I am saying he has the power to do so if he chooses. I am saying consider the possibility of this action and its effects on the world we know. Lets say he does manage to somehow launch a nuke at the US and as we know US has one of the worlds most advanced air difference system in the world, so lets assume the strike fails what does that mean for North Korea.
This would be a declaration of war on the part of North Korea to the US and the world. This also puts China in a tough spot, but over all in my opinion if all that happens China would be forced to cut ties with North Korea. Just the act of launching a nuclear weapon regardless of which nuclear wilding nation it is would result as that nation being seen as a threat to the whole world. The North Korean people my not be stupid or implosive but in the end the trigger is held by one man and its is probably the last man on earth you want to give that kind of power.


Of course this is all speculation on my part. However it is best to deal with issues before they have a chance to escalate to the point of no return and it can no longer be changed or be regretted

I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Un is just a figurehead of sorts. Maybe he has some power, but most of it is probably with the military leaders.

Shadow_Links wrote:I was mainly referencing the nuclear deterrence part of the cold war, Mutually Assured Destruction, that sort of stuff. Essentially using the general term cold war as indirect conflict. (I may be stretching that a bit since it is N. Korea and not a satellite)

It can be seen like that, but I think it's a bit different. There is the MAD mechanic since even if NK can't completely destroy the US, a nuke onto the US will still be devastating and should not happen at all costs. The US supposedly has ways of stopping nukes though, so under that assumption the US holds most of the power in this situation. But I don't think the nuke prevention system (I forgot what it was called) is as reliable as they make it out to be, and the US exaggerates it to calm the public. That's just an assumption on my part though.

Even if the US does have all the power and anti-nuke capabilities, China is another factor in this situation. They are the unwilling ally of NK since they don't want NK refugees in their country. If we attack NK, China is sure to act because of refugees and because they may not want an American zone so close to the mainland (there's still Guam and Japan though so I'm not sure about this possibility).

So MAD may not be the mechanic or the only mechanic at play here, and that changes how the countries will interact.

Kusanagi wrote:

AlucArd_1590 wrote:Even if the North Korean leader seems to be showing of for his military a threat of nuclear strike is not something to be taken lightly. Specially when you relies how young he is to be leading a country also have to put in to consideration Kim Jong-un's stat of mind he was basically thought to be like his father. The difference is he is so much younger and there for much more implosive when making chooses, after all he did threaten the US and the UK with nuclear strikers.
I'm not saying he will do it or not however I am saying he has the power to do so if he chooses. I am saying consider the possibility of this action and its effects on the world we know. Lets say he does manage to somehow launch a nuke at the US and as we know US has one of the worlds most advanced air difference system in the world, so lets assume the strike fails what does that mean for North Korea.
This would be a declaration of war on the part of North Korea to the US and the world. This also puts China in a tough spot, but over all in my opinion if all that happens China would be forced to cut ties with North Korea. Just the act of launching a nuclear weapon regardless of which nuclear wilding nation it is would result as that nation being seen as a threat to the whole world. The North Korean people my not be stupid or implosive but in the end the trigger is held by one man and its is probably the last man on earth you want to give that kind of power.


Of course this is all speculation on my part. However it is best to deal with issues before they have a chance to escalate to the point of no return and it can no longer be changed or be regretted

I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Un is just a figurehead of sorts. Maybe he has some power, but most of it is probably with the military leaders.

Yeah I mean if you were part of the military that ruled over a country would you actually let the stupid son of your former leader have any real power? The only reason they keep that little punk around is because they literally brainwashed the populace into seeing the leader as god. So having him is power makes controlling the populace easier. After all I doubt the higher ups of the government are brainwashed like the rest of the populace. They might let him have some authority later when he grows up if he proves competent but right now he is still a bit young and the other guys who were in power along with his father probably don't want to hand things completely over to him.